Analysing The Mandalorian and Grogu’s Box Office

We are trying out a new type of article today wherein we are looking at the box office of The Mandalorian and Grogu to see the health of the Star Wars franchise.

A few things first we will be looking at first weekend numbers and estimated second weekend positioning, we won’t be looking at the life time run. Additionally this will be about breaking even theatrically so whilst you can scream about toys that isn’t relevant here.

So the Mandalorian and Grogu is the first Star Wars film to open in 7 years, and many outlets even the access media said that it had the worst opening of any Star Wars film since Disney bought them. Yet Disney said it was pleased with how it did? That’s confusing, does Disney have low expectations, did they think it would do worse? One would argue that regardless of if it’s true or not Disney have to say that otherwise it could spook second weekend sales.

The opening weekend of the film brought in around 168 million dollars, which you might go well the budget was around that so it broke even. Wrong, films needs 2.5 times their budget to break even this accounts for marketing and for cinema distribution costs. By our count the film needs around 412 million dollars to break even. However, the trades are reporting that it needs 500-600 million to break even, suggesting that the budget may be bigger than has been reported or the marketing budget could be huge. The headline which many people ran with was this that film opened to worse than Solo which was considered a flop for Star Wars. The sad truth is that’s true the numbers were lower even without adjusting for inflation and you must always adjust for inflation at the box office as the value of money changes with inflation and 160 million dollars (just an example) a decade ago is actually much more now adjusted.

Some of you may say well it’s a marathon and not a sprint the film still has a long theatrical run ahead of it. That’s true the film could reach 412 or even the 500-600 if it’s in cinemas long enough and it doesn’t suffer a huge drop off. Although it must be said that reporting is suggesting that the film could suffer a drop off of as much as 60% this weekend,, it was down Eighty Percent on Friday sales and the projections for the weekend box office say that The Backrooms and maybe even Obsession will take the top two spots at the box office. This could massively harm the run of the film at the box office, also add to that that next weekend is the release is of He-Man, which would aim for a similar demo as such the third weekend could be harmed by direct competition.

The fact that a Star Wars film is being lapped by an A24 indie horror film and possibly also by Obsession does not speak to a healthy franchise. The fact is all the Disney + shows have trained audiences to think of Star Wars as a TV show and also damaged the brand and alienated fans, as such it is going to have a hard time commanding the box office in any capacity.

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The Mandalorian And Grogu: Star Wars’ Big Comeback?

Summary: Din and Grogu head to the big screen.

So this won’t move the needle for a lot of people. If you like the Mandalorian you’ll like it and if you didn’t you won’t. This isn’t the film to save Star Wars if such a thing can even happen. This is life support. It doesn’t change that Pedro is poisonous to the brand and needs to go or that the film opened to record low numbers.

The one thing to note is that is markedly better than season 3 of the show, and Din is not sidelined here as he was in that. The action is stronger and the father son relationship between Din and Grogu feels weighty and meaningful. Particularly the sequence of Grogu looking after Din towards the third act of the film, you might get a bit misty there. Seeing Zeb back from Rebels was good though one wishes they did more with him particularly during the Hutt storyline. It is interesting to see what will happen to the crime world side of Star Wars after these Hutts have been taken out.

An additional thing to enjoy about this film is the amount of puppetry in it and how well it’s done as opposed to horrible CGI.

The issues with the film are threefold. Firstly the music is off, yes you have Mando’s theme but you also have all this weird techno trance music which feels more befitting something like Blade Runner than Star Wars, this is jarring. The secondly you have the structure, it feels like two episodes mashed together you have the remnant story and then the Hutt twins story, and whilst there are plot threads to connect the two it isn’t enough. When the remnant storyline ends you go okay is that the end of the film, but there is still over an hour left. Finally you get to the Sigourney Weaver of it all, seeing her as a New Republic military leader is one thing, but seeing her be this old woman fighter pilot at the end is laughable in a bad way. Do you mean to say that they didn’t have anyone else who was more in their prime to carry it out on the whole base. That said Weaver was

Overall, serviceable and much better if you are a fan of the show and wider universe than not.

3.5/5

Pros.

The action

Mando and Grogu

Where it leaves the universe after the end of the film

The puppetry

Cons.

The pacing

The music

Weaver as a fighter pilot

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Cinema Issues: Too Big To Fail, But Failing Anyway The Pedro Pascal Story

Gladiator 2, The Fantastic Four and seemingly the Mandalorian and Grogu all have one thing is common, they either flopped or are predicted to. As we write this piece the Mandalorian is a few days away and it has a low critical rating and bad projections.

What went wrong? Pedro Pascal burst onto the screen after Game of Thrones and Narcos and seemed on a one man mission to take over Hollywood and for a long time he was in a number of things. However, the warning signs were coming.

Pedro became increasingly outspoken, he became worse than Mark Ruffalo and a female equivalent to Rachel Zegler. Zegler at least had the ignorance of youth Pedro doesn’t. He went on blast at the last US election attacking people if they didn’t vote the way he wanted them to, then you had the creepy thing with Vanessa Kirby and the touching, then you had this position on trans issues. Pedro’s brother has delusions that he is a woman as such Pedro defends the idea that someone can become another sex, an idea that is bunk. Pedro also frequently attacks people he deems transphobic or who don’t support the community enough. Can you see where this is going?

Even recently on the press tour for Mando he kissed a late night host on the mouth rather than you know promote the movie. He has become emboldened by the left wing who view him as the perfect modern man to chase this progressive wave.

The issue is as we have seen time and time again in the culture war the dyed hair crowd of bluesky fame, not only don’t come out for the TV and films they spend all day defending against bigots, but when they do they are such a tiny part of the audience the project still fails. As such they shouldn’t be chased.

With his recent string of flops the ground looks set to swallow Pedro alive. Yes the Materialist was a success on a modest budget but in terms of franchise fare it looks like it’s over. If Mando flops those at Lucasfilm and Disney would be wise to hang that dead albatross around Pedro’s neck and blame him and his divisive statements. One wouldn’t be surprised if in a month after the release of Mando if we hear that Pedro has been sacked in the role, possibly maybe even that Reed Richards will be recast for Secret Wars.

Sadly Pedro is just another example of a Hollywood elitist who thought they were an activist rather than an actor.

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Cinema Issues: Folks Are Realising Star Wars Is Dead

The projections for the Mandalorian and Grogu is that it will open to 80 million dollars worldwide on its opening weekend. Which for a film of it’s size and with the brand behind it is dire. Likely this is why Kathleen left earlier this year as she didn’t want this to on her, but it is.

This is a result of treating your fans like crap for years, and for constantly attacking them from creatives down to actors. For goodness sake the man playing the Mandalorian hates half the American public and compared them to the KKK. It is a result of not making films for them and instead making films for a group of people who don’t like Star Wars and likely never will.

It will be very interesting to see where this goes if it does open as low as people say. One would imagine heads would need to roll immediately, as someone who lives not too far from Galaxies Edge it is becoming clearer and clearer that the brand is dying and quickly at that.

They need to listen to the fans they called toxic for so many years, they need to cancel everything if this fails and start over with a new slate of films and shows.

Star Wars can be saved but it needs drastic intervention soon.

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Star Wars A New Hope: A Slow Start

Summary

The Saga begins.

For me this is easily the worst of the Original Trilogy, and that is mainly due to the pacing of the film. It takes a long time to get going, when it does it picks up, but there is a lot of time before Luke, Mark Hamill, meets the Rebellion.

It is well done at setting up things to come and makes the universe feel really and lived in, you can see why it became so popular as the universe is crying out with stories to tell. However, it would and does later, benefit from being a bit more in depth, the characters we are meeting here are interesting but paper thin, if you think about any of the central trio, simply as this film presents them you will see they are not well rounded characters.

You do get some cool set pieces such as whenever Darth Vader is on screen but these are few and far between.

Overall, slow yet with promise.

2/5

Pros.

Some cool set pieces

It sets up an interesting world

Cons.

It is slow

The acting isn’t great

The characters are paper thin

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Return Of The Jedi: More Like Return Of The Ewoks

Summary

The second best of the original trilogy.

Now whilst I know a lot of people have mixed feelings about this film, not Sequel trilogy levels of negativity, but still. However, for me I enjoyed this more than A New Hope, this was really because I enjoyed the idea of seeing the Rebellion at its hight and getting to spend more time with it, rather than seeing them on the back foot. This feels closer to the Star Wars projects I most gel with which is to say books/games/tv shows/ films wherein you are following a grunt in the trenches and you are seeing these almost fantastical wars, and the tactics of them, rather than more from the Skywalker saga.

Another thing I appreciate about this film is how the other elements from the previous two films come together in a way that feels satisfying and that feels truly like a galaxy fighting back. I also really liked the arc of Darth Vader and his internal conflict at the end of the film wherein he finally becomes redeemed. Do I think this film would have hit as hard at the time? No. I think watching it after watching the Prequels and the animated series and knowing how Anakin is as a character adds an extra dimension.

Do the Ewoks get too much screentime to sell toys to kids? Yes of course, but for me I didn’t mind that, I liked the Ewoks for the most part.

Overall, it is good and a hell of a lot better than the Sequel films however, it doesn’t feel as gritty as Empire and for me that places it in a solid second place.

3.5/5

Pros.

More time with the rebellion

A grander scale

It feels like something special

Getting to see the best from each character

Cons.

It wouldn’t be as good if you did not know much about Anakin as a character

The CGI is ropey at times

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Andor Second Season Overview: Rape In Space, ICE, and Unfortunate Comments from Diego Luna

Summary

Andor returns for an incredibly slow second season.

In many ways this entire second season was a step back from the first, there was less action, less character development and even more things left open-ended.

The final arc of the second season wherein we were seeing more of the Partisans on the earlier rebellion should have been the main focus of this season, but instead we got wild weddings, an ICE allegory and far too many scenes of Syril’s mother. The first two arcs were boring filler that really added very little to the overall season. How was seeing Mon Mothma dancing for well over 5 minutes in any way necessary to understand the early rebellion. Gilroy has gone on to say that Kathleen Kennedy fought for him to have his vision but maybe just maybe this is one of those times she should have intervened.

Showing the Ghorman Massacre was interesting and probably the high point of the season but again this was far too drawn out with about 5 episodes leading up to the actual massacre. The pacing of this show is really what kills it for me in many ways. Likewise I thought the finale arc mainly revolving around Luthen’s assistant was a weird move as it prevented us getting closure with seemingly much more important characters in the narrative.

Overall, it is watchable but the pace is so bad it will send you to sleep.

2/5

Pro.

The Ghorman Massacre

Some of the earlier Rebellion stuff

Cons.

The pacing

The unanswered questions

Too many side characters

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Star Wars Tales Of The Underworld: Filler As We Wait For Maul

Summary

We get to see the early life of Cad Bane and the resurrection of Ventress.

So I have to say this series hit a sore spot for me, I have been eagerly awaiting a new animated Star Wars offering since Bad Batch went away and when I heard about this and the character focuses I was excited. However, upon watching, it feels like filler, nothing very epic or of consequence happens, and whilst yes it fills in some blanks it is pretty dull. They managed to have Ventress fighting an inquisitor be over in a few seconds, this should have been a big epic duel like when Maul and Ezra fight inquisitors in Rebels but no.

Moreover, in the Ventress centric episodes we see yet another jedi survivor and it is now getting to a point wherein it is taking away from Order 66, if everyone ended up actually surviving then it wasn’t this big event that it is portrayed as in the Star Wars lore. Seeing the kid talking about Quinlan Vos and the Path made me just want to get a Path show, which could give us either an animated or live action Cal Kestis and Merrin. There are projects that would be a slam dunk for Star Wars they just need to commit to them.

Overall, a sad missed opportunity.

2/5

Pros.

It has some interesting ideas and concepts

The inquisitor design is pretty cool

Cons.

It is dull

It feels like filler

It cheapens Order 66

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The Force Awakens: The Beginning Of The End?

Summary

A new trilogy is born.

So recently I went through and watched every single Star Wars film again, and found that by and large the sequels are the worst era. Shocker.

My issue with this film is not that it is bad, but rather that it was a missed opportunity.

Whilst I could make the same point that everyone has made about how the film is far too reliant on nostalgia, I will instead say that the issue with it is that it has three protagonists when it should have two. For my money I think the film should focus on Rey, Daisy Ridley, and Poe, Oscar Issac, and just cut out the entirety of Finn, John Boyega’s, storyline. This is mainly because it does not pay off in any meaningful way in the following films and just ends up feeling like a needless side story. Think about it Rey has the Jedi side down and Poe has the Smuggler/Rebellion side down what does Finn actually bring to the table.

It sets up a lot of interesting threads with Snoke and Captain Phasma but sadly doesn’t really do much with either of them, this was clearly done to get people to speculate in-between films but then just did not pay off. I would have liked more about how the First Order came to be and less of an emo Kylo Ren, Adam Driver, honestly these scenes are hard to watch, seeing Kylo get mad and smash up the place isn’t scary, it isn’t cool it just looks like a teenager being an emo and it is irritating.

I found the characterisation of Rey here to actually be okay, this was before she became godlike overnight, and I found the character easy to root for. However, one thing I have to say that made these films stand out from both of the other trilogies in a bad way is the horrible Marvel humour that is really quite distracting.

Overall, it was a good start but arguably tried to do too much.

3/5

Pros.

It sets up some interesting things

It does manage to deliver some good nostalgia beats

Snoke

Cons.

It does not really set up or give an identity to the First Order

The Marvel humour and the cringe emo scenes

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The Empire Strikes Back: Star Wars In Its Prime

Summary

The Empire is at its zenith and even though Boba Fett does not do much of anything he is easily the coolest person on screen.

So I rewatched the original trilogy for the first time in years and I have to say I have a renewed appreciation for them, perhaps it is the lore deep dives that I have been doing that have brought that about or perhaps it is the sorry comparison to Disney Star Wars.

Anyway, I think that this is easily the best of the original trilogy as it feels the most like a war film. For me personally I am more interested in the war side of things rather than the broader fantasy and mysticism, so I enjoyed the big large scale battle this film brought to bear. I particularly enjoyed the opening sequence on Hoth, I feel like using practical sets rather than copious amounts of CGI really help to give it a visceral edge.

The growing dread of Bespin as you know even if you haven’t seen it before that something is not right is masterfully implemented and executed and I feel the payoff is satisfying. I would have liked it to be have been played a little more earnestly by Harisson Ford, he’s a bit too jokey for my liking in this scene, however, the emotional roar from Chewbacca really is effective.

Overall, a million miles better than anything we are getting from contemporary Star Wars and all the more proof that there should be an animated show focusing on the adventures of Han, Luke and Leia in between the adventures of the original trilogy or immediately after.

4.5/5

Pros.

The stakes

The visceral war feeling

Boba Fett just being cool

The tension on Bespin

The pacing

Cons.

Han is a bit to cavalier about being frozen

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