We are trying out a new type of article today wherein we are looking at the box office of The Mandalorian and Grogu to see the health of the Star Wars franchise.
A few things first we will be looking at first weekend numbers and estimated second weekend positioning, we won’t be looking at the life time run. Additionally this will be about breaking even theatrically so whilst you can scream about toys that isn’t relevant here.
So the Mandalorian and Grogu is the first Star Wars film to open in 7 years, and many outlets even the access media said that it had the worst opening of any Star Wars film since Disney bought them. Yet Disney said it was pleased with how it did? That’s confusing, does Disney have low expectations, did they think it would do worse? One would argue that regardless of if it’s true or not Disney have to say that otherwise it could spook second weekend sales.
The opening weekend of the film brought in around 168 million dollars, which you might go well the budget was around that so it broke even. Wrong, films needs 2.5 times their budget to break even this accounts for marketing and for cinema distribution costs. By our count the film needs around 412 million dollars to break even. However, the trades are reporting that it needs 500-600 million to break even, suggesting that the budget may be bigger than has been reported or the marketing budget could be huge. The headline which many people ran with was this that film opened to worse than Solo which was considered a flop for Star Wars. The sad truth is that’s true the numbers were lower even without adjusting for inflation and you must always adjust for inflation at the box office as the value of money changes with inflation and 160 million dollars (just an example) a decade ago is actually much more now adjusted.
Some of you may say well it’s a marathon and not a sprint the film still has a long theatrical run ahead of it. That’s true the film could reach 412 or even the 500-600 if it’s in cinemas long enough and it doesn’t suffer a huge drop off. Although it must be said that reporting is suggesting that the film could suffer a drop off of as much as 60% this weekend,, it was down Eighty Percent on Friday sales and the projections for the weekend box office say that The Backrooms and maybe even Obsession will take the top two spots at the box office. This could massively harm the run of the film at the box office, also add to that that next weekend is the release is of He-Man, which would aim for a similar demo as such the third weekend could be harmed by direct competition.
The fact that a Star Wars film is being lapped by an A24 indie horror film and possibly also by Obsession does not speak to a healthy franchise. The fact is all the Disney + shows have trained audiences to think of Star Wars as a TV show and also damaged the brand and alienated fans, as such it is going to have a hard time commanding the box office in any capacity.
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