As Sunday rolled into Monday many people were looking at the numbers of the Odyssey first weekend around 264 and going take that chuds.
However, the first weekend is not proof of anything and everything will be decided in the second and third weekend. Here’s how.
Firstly the film using Hollywood standard 2.5x the production budget needed to break even needs to make around 625 million dollars. Which is about 360-361 million dollars from where they are now.
Now normally Nolan films have a long stretch in cinemas without competition, not this time but we will get there.
Secondly, if you look at the breakdown of the reported 264 a lot of it came from premium formats, this is your IMAX and things like that. Now these tickets were sold way in advance and bring in much more money per ticket sale than a regular ticket. However, most of the people who cared deeply about the format will have seen it by now, meaning they went the first weekend potentially suggesting we could be seeing a front loaded movie. There will be some people who couldn’t get premium seats last weekend who may go in the week or even next weekend and there will be others who go again. The number of premium tickets however will be down in the second weekend both for the natural reason of less people going but also because the few who missed out on opening weekend and those who want to see it again will be a small group. This means the second weekend drop off will be reflective of a front loaded movie. A usual film that holds well will lose about 50% of its business but this has the added factor of being so dependent on premium formats as such it could see into the 60% or higher.
Going into the second weekend the film sits at 364 million dollars, as a lot of the stragglers after the first weekend went to see the film during the week, meaning they’ll likely be high drop off on the second weekend.
This would mean that the film would end its second weekend around 500 million when you account for the weekday ticket sales as well. This leaves the film with around a 125 deficit to break even. This would then become a central issue as it faces a lock out in the third weekend.
Basically if the Odyssey wants to break even it needs an incredibly strong second weekend.
In the film’s third weekend Spider-Man Brand New Day comes out. This means the premium IMAX screens will stop making any money for the Odyssey and will be handed to Sony for that film. This means that the male demographic is split as well. Both Spider-Man and The Odyssey lean towards men, older men say 25-40 will have an interest in both so there will be direct competition. Whilst the older crowd 60+ may still show up for the prestige epic and the cinephiles might go back for rewatches the core of the audience will be hollowed out.
As such the box office will likely see a significant downturn on the third weekend.
You are then left with two options, that the film sticks around and over a few long period of time maybe into September is able to crawl to that 625 million break even point, or it does not break even at all and the chuds win.
If you were Universal you would be watching that second weekend like a hawk the closer to 500 million you can get the easier it will be to survive post Spider-Man. If the film managed to barely drop at all in the second weekend it could comfortably break even at 625 over the later summer period.
As such for those celebrating it is too soon to call.
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