We are beginning a new type of article here on the website dedicated to talking about the global box office. This was spurned on by the fact that very often you see confused, or outrightly false box office reporting so we wanted to try and provide some clarity. We operate on the idea that film profitability is the industry standard model of 2.5x the budget of the film, this then accounts for marketing and the cut of ticket sales between studios and cinemas in the domestic US market and the international market.
We have been keeping a running total of most of the major films that released between Autumn, that’s fall for our American friends, and Winter. As we are now in the spring/summer box office window we thought it was a good time to reflect over the findings.
Broadly we sort this into the good, the middling, the bad, and the worrying.
The good
Horror is doing well across the board from films like Scream 7, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2, Good Boy or the Conjuring 4. Lots of horror films are making a good return on investment at the box office this is mainly due to the fact that they often have low budgets but also that there is a steady audience for them. Slasher horror seems to be a mixed bag with Scream 7 doing well but with The Strangers Chapter 3 and Silent Night not doing well. This could be down to franchise fatigue with The Strangers and limited marketing for Silent Night. More out there art house horror like 28 Years Later the Bone Temple are also struggling however, this again could be a marketing issue, as well as a response to the polarising nature of Years Later. Ovebudgeted horror like the Bride and Send Help is failing as well. Budgets need to come down across the board.
Anime based projects like Demon Slayer and Chainsaw man are also connecting, this reflects anime becoming more mainstream. This trend looks set to continue and will likely lead to more and more big cinema chains to cater towards the anime towards going forward.
Blockbusters like Avatar 3, and Wicked 2 are still able to draw in a crowd, which is a healthy sign for the box office, however each brought in significantly less than their predecessor, which is a worrying sign of things to come.
Romance films and films more targeted towards the female demographic specifically with things like Regretting You and The Housemaid are doing well, which shows that there might yet be life for the romance, rom com genre in Hollywood after a long absence.
The middling
This is mainly the domain of kids films, you had highs with Zootopia 2, Gabby’s Dollhouse and SpongeBob, however, it seems to be very much a crap shoot in that not everything is connecting, the family market is seeming to be quite fickle. Films like Hoopers and Goat show that original animation need lower budgets and need to be timed well in terms of release windows. Hoppers is a massive self-inforced error for Pixar it was made for too much and it came out far too close to Mario 2. Likewise Looney Tunes the Day The Earth Blew Up shows that not all films aimed at kids do well, and that time period of release plays a factor. By that we mean the fact of how Gabby’s, SpongeBob and Zootopia are all either recent or have ongoing films/TV shows whereas Looney Tunes is somewhat dated by comparison.
The Bad
Franchises are no longer safe. Whilst there was always some risk with franchise films in most cases they were seen as lower risk, however Tron, Predator, and even smaller film franchises like Sisu all lost money on sequels. This suggests a need to actually think is this sequel needed, at the production level, as increasingly audiences can smell a bad sequel a mile away and aren’t coming. Franchise re-evaluation is needed and a fair few franchises need to be shelved, the recent cancellation of the Buffy reboot is an example of this.
Arthouse cinema and prestige films are increasingly being over budgeted, mostly due to being star vehicles and then are flopping over and over again. With examples such as the Smashing Machine, One Battle After Another and the Testaments of Ann Lee. Art House cinema has gained more and more ground over the last decade, outside of just the cinephile crowd, however the appetite for these sort of films has been overestimated. You can see the shift with this with films like The Devil Wears Prada 2 coming out and returning audiences to mindless escapism rather than meaningful films that say something. When reasonably budgeted art films can still break through such as Marty Supreme and Hamnet however, this is a losing game.
Original films more broadly are in trouble, almost all of the films that broke even during the period were either franchise films, or films based on something be that a book, a comic, a videogame etc. Original film such as the Bride are being over budgeted, or other films such as Mercy or Fackham Hall aren’t getting the attention they need in the marketplace. In some cases more original films will almost certainly move to streaming. Sadly a likely pipeline for the future will look like this, an original film releases on streaming it does well sequel in the cinema see K-Pop Demon Hunters.
The worrying
Attendance is down across the board when compared to pre pandemic we are starting to see an increase in business on last year, however this year we are bringing more to bare than last year so you would expect it.
Films that are doing well are doing a lot less than they would have in previous years and the ceiling for what would be profit is dropping and dropping, which is okay if you lower budgets however this is not happening across the board yet. This will lead to problems going forward if not remedied.
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