In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about press/media junkets.

So as many of you may know when you cover films, sometimes you attend junkets wherein you might get a meet and greet with actors or to see some new footage for a film etc.

These have long been a staple of how Hollywood promotes it’s films. It is a part of the marketing budget and usually is done for the actors benefit as they like to feel important and to have people asking them questions gives them a chance to talk. Now not all actors like it but more often than not they demand it as it gives them a stage.

However with Hollywood going through seismic changes, the age of the junket is coming to an end. Hollywood is starting to realise that target social media advertising gets more engagement, having actors go onto podcasts or YouTube channels where they can be “themselves” and do silly things like spicy wings is better publicity.

In addition press junkets have often been a source of controversy in recent memory, many sound bites and statements that would later go onto haunt productions came from actors at marketing junkets. Increasingly giving the stars a platform to make statements to the press, is becoming a hazard rather than a bonus.

The main reason they have survived this long is because as I said before the stars like them, they enjoy the press lining up to ask them questions, it makes them feel important. Although as Hollywood moves into a post movie star age, when AI stars may begin making appearances in films, or when less films are being made overall, then the negotiating power of the actor ends and with it likely junkets will end too.

With a contracting box office and a renewed rush to make films as cheaply as possible, that includes marketing, overpriced set pieces of yore such as the junket become relegated to a past where movie stars mattered.

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In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about the box office for Avatar Fire and Ash

Let’s get a few things clear before we start, films need to make 2.5x their budget to break even as per standard box office analysis, Avatar Fire and Ash had a stated budget of 400 million meaning it needed at least 1 billion to break even. It has now crossed that and broken even.

Let’s also clear up adjusting for inflation, so Avatar 1 made 2.9 billion and Avatar 2 made 2.3 billion, I am going to keep those figures as they are for this piece but know that 2.9 billion in 2009 money is not the same as 2.9 billion in 2025 money by a long shot and if translated to current value would be a lot more.

Additionally let’s say that Avatar and Avatar 2 have had the benefit of being re-released increasing their totals over time.

That said let’s look at the facts.

We have just finished the third box office weekend of Avatar 3’s run and it has just broken a billion dollar mark and is somewhere in the 1-1,2 billion mark. If you compare this to the first 3 weeks of the other two films you may start to see a pattern.

Analysts who study the box office for a living see Fire and Ash ending it’s run at somewhere between 1.5-1.7 billion dollars, this is significantly off where the other films ended their cinematic runs.

These two things suggest a worrying precedent for fans of Pandora. The number of people coming out to watch these films is getting smaller, audience interest is waning as the health of the franchise looks bad. The franchise has entered quite clearly into a spiral of diminished returns, which whilst still being profitable makes the assignment of big budgets, such as the 400 million Avatar commands, hard to come by. There is a real chance that if Avatar 4 is greenlit, that it may struggle to break 1 billion and may end up diminished again and come in around the 1.1 billion dollar mark.

There will be those of you reading going oh only 1.1 billion, as we have established if a film has a 400 million dollar budget it needs 1 billion just to break even, as such it would only make 100 million in profit which for a film of that scale would be a massive disappointment and a bad ROI.

No, even with PVOD, theme park ticket sales, and merch the equation won’t change meaningfully.

All of this leads to my point, I don’t think the Avatar franchise is dead. I think that it needs drastically scaling back and for James Cameron to be brought to heel, he doesn’t need the film to be on for 4 hours with countless filler scenes, they should give him a tight budget and a tight runtime.  250 million dollars is still a large budget, though it is nearly half what Fire and Ash had, however that would be far more suitable for a film that may make in the 1.1 billion range. Disney will be seeing the box office and know that the franchise needs to be brought more in line with the financial reality.

I do not believe that the film will have a second wind in the forth or fifth week of release and do imagine it will hit Disney + by February, I think the estimates are likely and it will run out of steam around the 1.5 billion mark.

None of this is to say that Fire and Ash hasn’t made money simply that in terms of franchise health the box office isn’t a good sign as it is a significant departure from previous films.

If you enjoyed this Cinema Issues article  , then please head over to my Patreon to support me, I offer personalized shoutouts, customised film recommendations to suit your personality and tastes, the ability for you to pick what I review next and full access to my Patreon exclusive game reviews. Check it out!

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