Cinema Issues: The Problem With Budgets

In this edition of cinema issues we are talking about the issue with film budgets and how it is leading to more and more films flopping.

I am writing this after the first weekend of 28 Years Later The Bone Temple wherein the film has underperformed. The film was good, it had good reviews, what was the issue? The budget was 65 million, for reference the budget of the first film from back in the noughties was 8 million, even adjusted for inflation that wouldn’t be anywhere near close to 65 million dollars.

Now there may well be shared costs between this and 28 Years Later itself as the films shot back to back, but that aside why did a film of this scope have a budget of 63 million dollars.

Therein lies the issue, and it is one that is plaguing Hollywood. Budgets are too big and need to come down, the box office has contracted less and less people are going, you cannot still be making films for 250 million dollars or even 100 million dollars the days when large crowds would go and films could break even more easily is largely over it seems.

Somewhere around the late 2000s, early 2010s one man understood that to almost guarantee profitability even when a film is bad or poorly reviewed the film needed to be made for next to nothing. That man was Jason Blum. He was ahead of the curve and now Hollywood needs to take a page out of his book.

If 28 Years Later Bone Temple had been made for 20 million then it would be close to breaking even now.

CGI really is the thing that is draining budgets, and in a sense the wider implication of AI could bring that down, but so could a return to practical effects and more innovative film making.

Ultimately something needs to change, if studios don’t want to suffer flop after flop they need to get serious about the market for these films now and budget accordingly.

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Cinema Issues: Sinners Fans Strike Back, The Oscars Melt

In this edition of cinema issues we are talking about the reaction to Sinners being Oscar nominated within the tribalistic fan base of the film. Increasingly the Sinners fandom is becoming one of the worst of recent memory.

Let’s crack into why that is.

Firstly, they are delusional they seem to think the film is bigger than Jesus and that it is entitled to win all 16 Oscars it is nominated for. No film ever in history has done that but they think Sinners has to, otherwise it will be racist.

Secondly, they are already making narratives about how white folks are going to stop Sinners winning or saying that it won’t go home with anything etc. Personally I believe it was nominated to show the Oscars aren’t so white after all and do believe it will walk away with nothing or very little in total number of awards. However, to imply a racial conspiracy where white people as a race are out to get the film and are all working together to keep it down is hysterical and racist.

Thirdly, increasingly they have turned Sinners into a culture wars issue and made it about race. Almost everyone who is pro Sinners whether they are black or a liberal ally has to attack white people in the same post or say oh I don’t care what white people think. The whole point of films are that they are for everyone we shouldn’t be in a place where a film is seen for “one group”, and that other people aren’t allowed an opinion on it. The visceral hatred toward white people that is common place within discourse on Sinners shows that sectarianism is rising within cinema and awards shows and that is not something we should be happy about.

Fourthly, they are silencing dissent, if anyone speaks out about Sinners in a negative way they are called racist. If they themselves are black the Sinners fans then imply they are race traitors or not proper black people, this furthers the bigoted approach and creates rifts within the very community they are supposedly championing. By demanding one thought that must be adhered to there is fascist elements within the Sinners community that deal in the language of racial hatred.

If you want to see for yourself what I am talking about go on any social media app and type in Sinners and scroll through the comments and you’ll see it.

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Cinema Issues: The Witch Has Melted

In this edition of cinema issues we are talking about Kathleen Kennedy, the Karen in chief herself, and the power of nepotism.

So first things first Kennedy only got to where she was by being friendly with Steven Spielberg and George Lucas. That’s it.

Under her tenure the Sequel Trilogy died as it was devised without a cohesive plan.

A Han Solo film flopped after Kathy refused Lorde and Miller any kind of creative control.

Most films that she announced never happened.

And most of the shows on Disney plus she greenlit, were either forgotten about in the case of Skelton Crew, or died a humiliating death looking at you Acolyte.

What were her successes in this obituary, I suppose people like Andor, she was involved with that I mean mildly but I guess that’s her win. Remember she wanted to go out on a win. She can’t have the Mandalorian that was all John Faverau and Dave Filloni.

She leaves Star Wars as a husk of a TV brand that is increasingly irrelevant and that spat so many times on its fans they stopped coming.

Now she is leaving Lucas film and a man is taking over as creative director, I guess the force wasn’t female after all.

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Cinema Issues: Tribalism and Sinners

In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about the response to the Golden Globes not giving Sinners best picture.

We can break it down into a few different categories but all are based on the same logic, the characters were the same race as me therefore I must defend it and act like it was the biggest deal in the history of cinema. Part of the black community seems to think that Sinners is “their” film, I’ve seen a good few of them write it and that if you don’t like it or don’t think it was amazing you’re either a racist, or if you’re black you’re a traitor.

The internet is full of mental illness.

Let’s get into the first category, this I will call the fake fan. These people say that Sinners was better than everything else up for the best picture yet if pushed admit they haven’t watched anything else, and so have no frame of reference.

Secondly, you have the it was my favourite film or it made more money than, your subjective opinion doesn’t matter, how much money it made only mattered to the thing it won, not to best picture. Demanding it to win best picture as it was your favourite film of the year places far too much importance on yourself.

Thirdly, RaCiSm. These are the claims that despite the winners being more diverse than ever overall. The Golden Globes or those who vote for them are racist and as such that’s why Sinners didn’t win. These people are race baiters who still act like it’s 1950 and that black people never win anything, clearly they didn’t even watch the show.

Fourthly you have the people treating an awards show like sports and act like they have a team they are dedicated to, this is ridiculous, cinema is subjective to those voting for it, it isn’t about merit its about personal taste.

Overall, the increasing tribalism and sectarian nature of the internet continues unabated and it’s depressing. A black dude can like Hamnet more than Sinners doesn’t make him bad and if you’re community thinks that then you’re pretty toxic.

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Cinema Issues: The Duffer Brothers Are Hacks, Findings From The Documentary

In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about the Stranger Things documentary.

Now this article won’t be about how the documentary wasn’t secretly a 9th episode.

This article is about what the documentary says about Stranger Things as a show, and critically the Duffer Brothers.

So let’s consider one thing this documentary came out when the Duffers were unpopular after the season finale, and only made things worse. I wouldn’t be surprised if Netflix did this knowing the Duffers were going to Paramount and wanted to salt the ground.

The documentary raised a number of points. It showed that the Duffers did not have a deep plan for the show or a multi season trajectory, the Brothers admit they didn’t have a finished script when going into production, which isn’t abnormal but it does destroy the idea that the Duffer’s had a plan or were all about attention to detail.

Moreover, it shows how the Duffers didn’t understand their own lore or characters as they needed actors and others involved with the show to correct them. One writer even asked why there weren’t any demogorgons, bats, or dogs in the final battle scene, but the Brothers didn’t seem to understand why that would be important. It shows incompetence. They had demogorgon fatigue and so decided against consistency in storytelling.

The actors appeared miserable, and as though they could not wait for the show to be done, this contrasts with the image of everyone being back and happy to have one last trip to Hawkins. It could also suggest behind the scenes dramas and what not.

In a still from the documentary they had ChatGPT open on laptops, so likely the Duffers were using AI to create scenes. Worse yet the maker of the documentary tries to defend them going, “you try keeping track of 19 characters without using it”. Good writers could and have done it before.

They off screen pivotal bits of information such as that Joyce and Hopper went to school with Henry and what happened to the Military in favour of a bloated and indulgent epilogue.

They have tried to play the victim post release of the documentary and said they were under time pressure by Netflix to get the final season out. They had 3 years and 400+ million to make 8 episodes of TV, it’s not Netflix’s fault you’re incompetent.

I have seen theories going around post the end of season 5 and now post documentary suggesting that the Duffers bought the idea of Stranger Things first season from someone else, and then when it became popular have been writing it themselves and blagging. I have also seen the idea that one of the other writers is actually the creative genius not the Duffers and they left somewhere around season 3 or 4 leaving the Duffers to struggle on their own. Even after the final I had some doubt about these theories but after watching the documentary I now believe them.

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Cinema Issues: The Issue With Video Game Films and Series.

In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about video games.

Video games are cool, Hollywood is finally realising.

More and more we are starting to see video games adapted to the screen. There is even some talk that they may one day replace superhero films.

However, the same issues that plagued superhero films is plaguing video game films, and that is being ashamed of what they are. There have been some great video game films such as Tomb Raider, both versions, the Paul W.S Anderson Resident Evil films and also his Monster Hunter film. The thing is they have played down the video game elements and tried to shed that side of themselves, much as superhero films did with comics. What I mean is that weird choices and logic that would only make sense in a video game is lost as it is adapted for the screen and in that some of the charm is lost.

I am not saying that we need to see stages adapted directly from games, but I would say that the Sonic films got it right, they fully embraced their video game wackiness and keep in things like Rings and Chaos Emeralds and that’s why it worked. Things like Super Mario Brothers tried to do this and was benefitted by being animated but even then they had to change things to get away from the games.

The studios want these things to appeal to mass audiences that’s why they do it, but in doing this you drive away the key people who might support your film, the players of the games, these are a backbone that you can’t do without, especially as modern audiences are fickle.

We need more video game projects that aren’t ashamed of their origins.

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Cinema Issues: The Afterlife Of Stranger Things

In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about Conformity Gate and what it means for fandom as a broader subject.

So as many of you may have seen many Stranger Things fans expected there to be a bonus episode of the show which would be the true ending. It did not happen.

Fans invest far too much of themselves into shows and see them as an extension of themselves, its tribalism, as such a show not ending on the best note becomes almost a personal failure they cannot accept. This is unhealthy, you should not be this invested in a show.

It also presents as a cognitive dissonance as many of these people who would say it was one of the best shows ever made and that the finale was great- yet it needed to be changed and presented as the real finale.

It also speaks to a broader issue with internet culture, the popularity and belief in theory videos. There are a lot of theory videos for most popular shows but at the end of the day these are just theories they are what one person thinks and are often over done to be dramatic. Omg you’ll never believe what I’ve discovered. These videos are fine if you understand what you’re interacting with. However, it seems a growing contingent of people don’t, they seem to view these theories as gospel and believe they will play out in the show and then when they don’t get upset.

The fact is a lot of the Stranger Things theories positioned the show as far deeper and has having far more subtext then the writers ever did. It was just a goofy science fiction show about 80s nostalgia and ripping off Stephen King, it wasn’t even supposed to go beyond one season. There wasn’t a deep multi layered strategy for the show.

There is a sense of fan entitlement in the idea that they have to include the theory that you think is correct. There is also a righteous expectation of good writing, both can exist. However, there is also a lot of toxic positivity and hero worship wherein the Duffers and Stranger Things are being held up on a pedestal. This is done as people no longer believe they can critique something they like and that because they have spent time watching it or are a fan and it’s a part of their identity that they must defend it.

It was always nostalgia slop, it was never a deep show like Mad Men, or the Sopranos, or even something like Pluribus, but people made it out to be.

There was also a large degree of mental illness and unhealthy parasocial issues tied in.

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Cinema Issues: Outisde The Age Of The Junket

In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about press/media junkets.

So as many of you may know when you cover films, sometimes you attend junkets wherein you might get a meet and greet with actors or to see some new footage for a film etc.

These have long been a staple of how Hollywood promotes it’s films. It is a part of the marketing budget and usually is done for the actors benefit as they like to feel important and to have people asking them questions gives them a chance to talk. Now not all actors like it but more often than not they demand it as it gives them a stage.

However with Hollywood going through seismic changes, the age of the junket is coming to an end. Hollywood is starting to realise that target social media advertising gets more engagement, having actors go onto podcasts or YouTube channels where they can be “themselves” and do silly things like spicy wings is better publicity.

In addition press junkets have often been a source of controversy in recent memory, many sound bites and statements that would later go onto haunt productions came from actors at marketing junkets. Increasingly giving the stars a platform to make statements to the press, is becoming a hazard rather than a bonus.

The main reason they have survived this long is because as I said before the stars like them, they enjoy the press lining up to ask them questions, it makes them feel important. Although as Hollywood moves into a post movie star age, when AI stars may begin making appearances in films, or when less films are being made overall, then the negotiating power of the actor ends and with it likely junkets will end too.

With a contracting box office and a renewed rush to make films as cheaply as possible, that includes marketing, overpriced set pieces of yore such as the junket become relegated to a past where movie stars mattered.

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Cinema Issues: Betting Against James Cameron

In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about the box office for Avatar Fire and Ash

Let’s get a few things clear before we start, films need to make 2.5x their budget to break even as per standard box office analysis, Avatar Fire and Ash had a stated budget of 400 million meaning it needed at least 1 billion to break even. It has now crossed that and broken even.

Let’s also clear up adjusting for inflation, so Avatar 1 made 2.9 billion and Avatar 2 made 2.3 billion, I am going to keep those figures as they are for this piece but know that 2.9 billion in 2009 money is not the same as 2.9 billion in 2025 money by a long shot and if translated to current value would be a lot more.

Additionally let’s say that Avatar and Avatar 2 have had the benefit of being re-released increasing their totals over time.

That said let’s look at the facts.

We have just finished the third box office weekend of Avatar 3’s run and it has just broken a billion dollar mark and is somewhere in the 1-1,2 billion mark. If you compare this to the first 3 weeks of the other two films you may start to see a pattern.

Analysts who study the box office for a living see Fire and Ash ending it’s run at somewhere between 1.5-1.7 billion dollars, this is significantly off where the other films ended their cinematic runs.

These two things suggest a worrying precedent for fans of Pandora. The number of people coming out to watch these films is getting smaller, audience interest is waning as the health of the franchise looks bad. The franchise has entered quite clearly into a spiral of diminished returns, which whilst still being profitable makes the assignment of big budgets, such as the 400 million Avatar commands, hard to come by. There is a real chance that if Avatar 4 is greenlit, that it may struggle to break 1 billion and may end up diminished again and come in around the 1.1 billion dollar mark.

There will be those of you reading going oh only 1.1 billion, as we have established if a film has a 400 million dollar budget it needs 1 billion just to break even, as such it would only make 100 million in profit which for a film of that scale would be a massive disappointment and a bad ROI.

No, even with PVOD, theme park ticket sales, and merch the equation won’t change meaningfully.

All of this leads to my point, I don’t think the Avatar franchise is dead. I think that it needs drastically scaling back and for James Cameron to be brought to heel, he doesn’t need the film to be on for 4 hours with countless filler scenes, they should give him a tight budget and a tight runtime. 250 million dollars is still a large budget, though it is nearly half what Fire and Ash had, however that would be far more suitable for a film that may make in the 1.1 billion range. Disney will be seeing the box office and know that the franchise needs to be brought more in line with the financial reality.

I do not believe that the film will have a second wind in the forth or fifth week of release and do imagine it will hit Disney + by February, I think the estimates are likely and it will run out of steam around the 1.5 billion mark.

None of this is to say that Fire and Ash hasn’t made money simply that in terms of franchise health the box office isn’t a good sign as it is a significant departure from previous films.

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Cinema Issues: Netflix’s Doom

In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about is the unsure future for Netflix in the aftermath of Stranger Things.

Netflix had three big shows that people cared about in the current year, they were Wednesday, Stranger Things and Squid Game. Two of those three programs have since ended. The issue becomes what is the value proposition for Netflix going forward, what do they have. Their only remaining, franchise, is you want to call it that which they can keep spamming out new seasons of is Wednesday now. They need new hits, there is an argument that can be made well they are about to get WBD so they will have lots of new content in the medium term, and that may be so, but I am talking about the short term after Stranger Things ends. You can imagine on the second of January masses of people all around the world cancelling Netflix, this is an immediate short term problem.

The issue has been for Netflix for quite some time that they are making slop for second screen viewing, a lot of Netflix originals have flopped after one season and been cancelled, there has been few truly good productions that has lasted the test of the time particularly in the modern era. Early Netflix had shows like House of Cards, Orange Is The New Black, Arrested Development etc, but modern Netflix just can’t seem to generate any more mega hits. This really is due to a focus on virality and the need to be the dominant thing online as opposed to quality. One only needs to look at the output of competitor Apple TV to see that Netflix is making a choice in putting internet clout chasing over quality.

Some people will say that Netflix has diversified and that it will be okay due to ventures in sports and gaming, however, the former may get someone to subscribe for a month to watch a game and then leave, but the latter hasn’t shown any potential to get people to come in at all, so the idea that this can make up for the lack of sure fire hits that litter Netflix’s future is lacking.

We could be awakening to a future wherein Netflix is no longer the big dog and has more direct competition, it may even lose some of its market share. These issues could be remedied in the medium term if they get WBD but in the short term there could be a good chance that Apple TV, Prime and Disney could gain ground.

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