Netflix had three big shows that people cared about in the current year, they were Wednesday, Stranger Things and Squid Game. Two of those three programs have since ended. The issue becomes what is the value proposition for Netflix going forward, what do they have. Their only remaining, franchise, is you want to call it that which they can keep spamming out new seasons of is Wednesday now. They need new hits, there is an argument that can be made well they are about to get WBD so they will have lots of new content in the medium term, and that may be so, but I am talking about the short term after Stranger Things ends. You can imagine on the second of January masses of people all around the world cancelling Netflix, this is an immediate short term problem.
The issue has been for Netflix for quite some time that they are making slop for second screen viewing, a lot of Netflix originals have flopped after one season and been cancelled, there has been few truly good productions that has lasted the test of the time particularly in the modern era. Early Netflix had shows like House of Cards, Orange Is The New Black, Arrested Development etc, but modern Netflix just can’t seem to generate any more mega hits. This really is due to a focus on virality and the need to be the dominant thing online as opposed to quality. One only needs to look at the output of competitor Apple TV to see that Netflix is making a choice in putting internet clout chasing over quality.
Some people will say that Netflix has diversified and that it will be okay due to ventures in sports and gaming, however, the former may get someone to subscribe for a month to watch a game and then leave, but the latter hasn’t shown any potential to get people to come in at all, so the idea that this can make up for the lack of sure fire hits that litter Netflix’s future is lacking.
We could be awakening to a future wherein Netflix is no longer the big dog and has more direct competition, it may even lose some of its market share. These issues could be remedied in the medium term if they get WBD but in the short term there could be a good chance that Apple TV, Prime and Disney could gain ground.
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