In this edition of Cinema Issues we will be talking about the box office for Avatar Fire and Ash
Let’s get a few things clear before we start, films need to make 2.5x their budget to break even as per standard box office analysis, Avatar Fire and Ash had a stated budget of 400 million meaning it needed at least 1 billion to break even. It has now crossed that and broken even.
Let’s also clear up adjusting for inflation, so Avatar 1 made 2.9 billion and Avatar 2 made 2.3 billion, I am going to keep those figures as they are for this piece but know that 2.9 billion in 2009 money is not the same as 2.9 billion in 2025 money by a long shot and if translated to current value would be a lot more.
Additionally let’s say that Avatar and Avatar 2 have had the benefit of being re-released increasing their totals over time.
That said let’s look at the facts.
We have just finished the third box office weekend of Avatar 3’s run and it has just broken a billion dollar mark and is somewhere in the 1-1,2 billion mark. If you compare this to the first 3 weeks of the other two films you may start to see a pattern.
Analysts who study the box office for a living see Fire and Ash ending it’s run at somewhere between 1.5-1.7 billion dollars, this is significantly off where the other films ended their cinematic runs.
These two things suggest a worrying precedent for fans of Pandora. The number of people coming out to watch these films is getting smaller, audience interest is waning as the health of the franchise looks bad. The franchise has entered quite clearly into a spiral of diminished returns, which whilst still being profitable makes the assignment of big budgets, such as the 400 million Avatar commands, hard to come by. There is a real chance that if Avatar 4 is greenlit, that it may struggle to break 1 billion and may end up diminished again and come in around the 1.1 billion dollar mark.
There will be those of you reading going oh only 1.1 billion, as we have established if a film has a 400 million dollar budget it needs 1 billion just to break even, as such it would only make 100 million in profit which for a film of that scale would be a massive disappointment and a bad ROI.
No, even with PVOD, theme park ticket sales, and merch the equation won’t change meaningfully.
All of this leads to my point, I don’t think the Avatar franchise is dead. I think that it needs drastically scaling back and for James Cameron to be brought to heel, he doesn’t need the film to be on for 4 hours with countless filler scenes, they should give him a tight budget and a tight runtime. 250 million dollars is still a large budget, though it is nearly half what Fire and Ash had, however that would be far more suitable for a film that may make in the 1.1 billion range. Disney will be seeing the box office and know that the franchise needs to be brought more in line with the financial reality.
I do not believe that the film will have a second wind in the forth or fifth week of release and do imagine it will hit Disney + by February, I think the estimates are likely and it will run out of steam around the 1.5 billion mark.
None of this is to say that Fire and Ash hasn’t made money simply that in terms of franchise health the box office isn’t a good sign as it is a significant departure from previous films.
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